Shock - Utah Elects a Democrat to Congress

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https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/20/its-over-democrat-ben/?f...

Many moons ago, I mentioned this race and how we had a chance to get a democrat elected to Congress in the Salt Lake area.

Well, the stars aligned and circumstances provided enough votes to oust two-term Republican Congresswoman Mia Love. The blue wave splashed a little on Utah.

The results weren't known until today, but last night Congressman-elect Ben McAdams claimed victory after hearing only 271 votes remained to be counted and reported, making his 749 vote lead safe.

An automatic recount is triggered at a 0.25% margin. Ben's margin is 25.8 %. 21 votes - count 'em, 21 - are keeping Ben's total just outside the 25% threshold. A 694 vote victory out of 269,234 votes.

So don't say voting doesn't matter. (Props to voters for a 81.93% participation rate!)

Utah has a sole-Democrat in their delegation for the first time in 4 years. Some may say a DINO. Our last Demo was a DINO, a "blue-dog" democrat named Jim Matheson. He lobbies in DC now.

It will be interesting to see how Ben performs, especially representing the environmental crowd in urban Salt Lake City. Not sure how he'll do carrying that torch.

I'm pretty sure with such a small margin of victory, Mia will be back to run in two  years. She didn't have much of a record to run on, but this mid-term had initiatives on medical marijuana, gerrymandering, expanding Medicaid, and a gas tax increase for education (we need a head tax on those little sunbeams!) that brought out the alternative crowd and Democrat-leaning voters in urban Salt Lake County. Ben can't count on that for next time and that 694 vote margin may disappear.  

Bottom line - that's how hard it is to get a Democrat elected in Utah. All those things aligned, and it still was razor-thin. 

Actually the thread might be titled "Shock - Utah Salt Lake Elects a Democrat to Congress"

Which is why the gerrymandering initiative was important, but it barely passed, 50.34% - 49.66%  Republicans don't want an independent commission making recommendations to them. 

But urban Salt Lake is divided into 4 congressional districts, matching it with enough rural Utahns as to not create a Democratic stronghold ANYWHERE in Utah.

Another link - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-flip-utah-house-seat-a...

 

That's the political realities in this part of the world. Now back to regular programming.

Wow an 81.9 percent turnout is practically un-American. Way to turn-out SLC. 

Thanks for the update Slick

hope some gains are made as far as environmentalism goes, but regardless of the letter next to his name on cspan, hes still in that crazy cult

It would be interesting to see Utah move to "purple state" status as Colorado did in the state's transition to a blue state. Not saying that's the current political reality; but stranger things have happened.

SLC is a very nice city, and I can see why it would be attractive to a younger, more environmentally conscious group of potential voters. 

Skiing and boarding does attract people, but it's the hi-tech jobs pulling in lots of new, younger, more liberal and active residents. Home prices are through the roof and housing is scarce.

Some folks are down in Utah County (Provo - BYU) but many come to Salt Lake, a more liberal area of Utah. The most liberal is the Park City area.

City politics are dominated by the Dems, but rural Utah is a solid R. And they dominate our legislature. 24-5 in the Senate, 63-12 in the House. One of the reasons the Repubs in the Legislature were able to draw up Congressional districts that balance a portion of SL Dems with a boatload of rural Republicans.

Much of the country is experiencing the same rural/urban divide politically.

Yes Daylight, he IS in the cult, which may have gotten him some crossover votes. He one of the few Demo's that might have a shot at a statewide job, like Governor.  

Here's how they balance rural Utah with city slickers. People in San Juan County and/or St. George represented by the same person as Salt Lakers. How blatant can ya get?

Utah Cong Map.JPG

And here's how you split up the Salt Lake area to screw the Demos.

Utah Cong Map 2.JPG

 

SL Tribune political columnist Robert Gehrke reported this this morning:  https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/19/gehrke-good-news-is-bad/

Maybe marijuana is a miracle drug.

It worked wonders for Ben McAdams’ campaign, which rode a late surge in support for the medical marijuana legalization to a narrow win over Republican Rep. Mia Love.

Now in a race as tight as this one, with a final margin of just 694 votes, everything matters — the Blue Wave effect, the increased turnout from vote-by-mail and same-day registration, Mitt Romney coattails (or lack thereof), all of it.

But the impact that the medical marijuana vote had on the outcome is hard to ignore.

Consider this: Utah had the largest increase in turnout since the last midterm of any state in the nation, according to data gathered by University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald (numbers aren’t available for three states). Utah went from roughly 30 percent turnout in 2014 to more than 50 percent of eligible voters this year.

 

A poll by The Salt Lake Tribune and Hinckley Institute of Politics before the election found that 30 percent of voters were motivated by the propositions, the vast majority of them by medical marijuana.

 

But with medical marijuana in play, we saw a “Green Wave” that far and away overwhelmed anything in its path.

And the wave crested right before the election. According to Salt Lake County, 22,000 people registered to vote in the final week. More than 8,000 registered and voted on Election Day. And, in Salt Lake County, more than 80 percent voted for Proposition 2. And 64 percent voted for McAdams — a remarkable 10 full points higher than he had seen to that point in Salt Lake County. 

It was the decisive blow in a hard-fought campaign.

All of that raises some questions going forward. Will those young, progressive people stay involved? Will they vote next time?

If they stay engaged, it could change the political calculus in Utah long-term. If they don’t, we’ll slump back to mediocre turnout numbers, McAdams could struggle in his re-election bid in 2020, and Republicans will restore their grip on Utah politics.

For 2018, though, marijuana was a miracle drug.

****

So again, with all that going in the Democratic candidate's favor in an urban area, the margin was still razor-thin. 

 

In other Utah election news, the San Juan County Commission is now two Navajos and one anglo! Both Navajo members worked to get the Bears Ears Nat'l Monument established. One commissioner who saw the writing on the wall was Philip Lyman, the dink who led the ATV ride through Recapture Canyon through Native American archeological sites and was fined and sentenced to 10 days in jail. He replaced outgoing rabid anti-environmentalist legislator Mike Noel, who's in ethical hot water over the Bears Ears reduction. Seems his property is right on the border.

Get this about Lyman's fine. While Lyman still owes nearly $90,000 in restitution, the U.S. Attorney’s Office approved of letting him pay it off in $100-per-month installments. This is a guy who has a compensation package of over $50,000 as a part-time county commissioner and runs an accounting business. He was able to choose to serve his 10 day sentence right after the tax deadline of April 15th.   

The scenario went like this. Navajos sued and accused the county commission of gerrymandering. (The inequitable drawing of voting districts has meant that Navajos have never held a majority on the school board or County Commission. In fact, the first Navajo county commissioner, Mark Maryboy, was only elected in 1986, nearly 30 years after American Indians were granted the right to vote.) Judge agreed, said re-draw the maps. The county came back with an even more discriminatory map. Judge said, "OK, wanna mess with me? I'll redraw the maps for you." The newly drawn maps gave Navajos "a significant majority of voters in two of three commission districts and three of five school board seats. The decision was meant to reverse the historic political domination by whites there where the population is slightly more than half American Indians." It resulted in Navajos taking control of the county commission. The Anglos did try to get one of the Navajo candidates disqualified and actually had him removed from the ballot, but a judge reinstated him. These anglo clowns in San Juan County are off the charts. And if it wasn't for federal tax support, the county might dry up. But they HATE the feds.