Reopening Schedule

I just don’t think most Americans possess the level of discipline required there.

There are only three ways out of this. Anti-virals which we aren’t very good at. Vaccines which will be another 12 months from now and we don’t have a good track record with effective vaccines against other kinds of Corona virus. Heard immunity is the most likely we way we get past this, and for that we need 60% to get infected. SIP was only meant to prevent overwhelming the health care system it was never going to stop CV19.

We all need to thank Trump for politicizing shelter in place, because now his supporters are going to volunteer to get sick in order to protect the rest of us.

Over the next 12 months make good personal decisions like washing hands, not going out in public unless you have to, and wearing a mask when you do. Track new cases in your county not state or nationally. Whenever possible limit your physical exposure to Trump supporters and if at all possible, help the people at risk because this is going to be a particularly stressful time for them.

Set II of this show is gonna suck.

There is definitely going to be "Space" in the second set.  

Car sales in phase 1?  I would deprioritize that, even though there's surely pressure from unions and manufacturing jobs that people depend on.

>>Nightclubs
>>Concert venues
>>Large sporting events

in July?

That sounds good except the data trend will change as distancing is loosened.. so it is more likely the we will go back and forth between phases. I don’t think you will see phase 4 until after July of 2021. I actually think Phish will have to postpone the postponed dates 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1.pdf

Check this out Llo
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/suvs-get-parked-in-th...

Good analysis, Kxela.

thanks for that link Bss, interesting article. It's funny to see the little-ass Port of Hueneme referred to as a "major import facility" even though I knew cars came in there (mine did).

Thanks BSS --  That was a good read ...my take >  marketers have brainwashed Americans into assuming that they need to replace their car frequently > mother nature crushes supply chain > prices initally fall, then spike to create demand again> marketers wake up and sell the value of longevity and repairable > system balances. 

Yes.

Wake up to find out that you have the cars that won't sell..

Yeah I did a double take after reading that one yesterday. About a month and a half ago I predicted cash for clunkers v2 as part of dump’s upcoming Q2/Q3 economic Hail Mary. It would seem the dominoes are certainly lining up here.

They should just keep the hotspots locked down and open up the rest.

Continue to quarantine and enforce social distancing in the urban hotspots...station police cars at the city limits and don't let anyone in or out unless deemed essential. .like how the Canada/USA border is currently operated.

..and open up the rest of the state for business

^^^^^Might work IF we had mass testing.

We don't.

"station police cars at the city limits and don't let anyone in or out unless deemed essential". That's a totally crazy comment. We don't live in a police state.

Most cities have more ways in than they have available cops.

G Greg that’s exactly what they did in Wuhan... not even touching on this is the USA... when people catch wind there is going to be a lockdown they leave in droves... that’s exactly what happened in Wuhan and probably contributed or accelerated the spread.. on some level that happened here as people from NYC fled to there country or shore house the virus spread to Long Island and Jersey.. I think the reason we are reopening has less to do with how safe it is and more to do with this is going to be around for the long term we better adjust and figure out how to do stuff. 

Yeah there's the honor code part that we would have to use, and basically already are doing so.

They could use unarmed national guard. Once you get out of the city , local law enforcement pretty much knows the locals and what cars they're driving.  So not only could you police the border of the big city 'hotspot', you could have local township police/sherrif posted up watching incoming traffic Or on exit ramps from main highways . with thermometer and checkpoints basically similar to coming and going from an apartment complex or condo...or like as I was saying the Canada/US border.

Of course within the 'open rural' sector there could be more acute control like at nursing homes for e.g.

Its still a lockdown just more acutely rolled out and more effective than the highly unpopular statewide quarantines.

I think in the long run it will be the big cities with dense populations that will have to live with the more permanent effects of long term social distancing measures.  Many people will rethink where they want to live and make money.  People in the city will eventually get sick of the measures and move to the country. 

But they will have to quarantine 14 days first.

Look all im saying is that a long term statewide quarantine is unenforceable. You can't start cramming people in jail for not following unquantafiable social distancing.  Its all a guesstimate at this point anyway

Besides they are already letting people out of jail early to be able to social distance

For many businesses, reopening for business as usual won't make sense if it is not business as usual.  
 

Opening up to the public means exposing yourself to the public.  The 1918 pandemic came in three distinct waves, with the second being the deadliest.  Reopening without universal testing and tracing protocols in place, much less a developed vaccine, could be akin to wandering down to the seashore to collect seashells after surviving the first waves of a tsunami only to get drowned by the next set.  

There are also many businesses that are dependent on out of town customers.  If no one is traveling, even if their neighborhoods aren't on lockdown, will it make fiscal sense to pay staff and operating costs to do substantially less business?  
 

I feel fortunate to have found another avenue for my business with online selling during this crisis.  It gives me options, and I will think long and hard about reopening and exposing myself, my staff and my clients to the community spread of this disease.  If it's not safe, I won't reopen.  I'm not going to willingly expose myself or others I care about to idiots who refuse to wear a mask, maintain a 6 foot distance and wash their hands regularly.
 

Not all businesses will have the option of keeping their doors shut and still having a revenue stream.  For many of them, even reopening with diminished foot traffic and sales won't bring in enough revenue to keep them afloat.  These are the folks who will need to be subsidized with loans and grants or will go out of business.  

Exactly.  So don't open up the cities. Leave the hotspots locked down

^^^142 weren't they already doing that on the east coast. .rhode island keeping new yorkers out with police posted up at the state borders?

Im saying continue doing it but more acutely...not broad , unnecessary and uunenforceable state wide bans

This is a highly contagious disease with no extant vaccine, everywhere is succeptible to an outbreak.   Small communities with small medical facilities and resources will be that much more vulnerable.  

^ I was watching 60 Minutes last night, and some of those rural communities in Texas are fucked. The governor eased the lockdown, and some of those rural communities don't even have doctors, let alone a hospital. They have absolutely no way to treat the sick. The hospitals that are open are in such financial dire straits that they can't pay staff. One of those rural counties now has the biggest outbreak in the state.

people are ignoring the orders here. beaches fairly crowded again. sherrifs are not enforcing anything. we're "over it" here, apparently...local bar had patio packed/open for all the patriot group protesters to come socialize and have beers together after their march...

Good lord. These are all imaginary dates that don't have much to do with anything. On this date a certain business can open, on this other date this other type of business can open, then let's add arbitrary distancing and capacity regulations. It's all an absurd exercise in government security theater. 

I watched that 60 Minutes as well, this is only the beginnig of the end for many of those hospitals.

America needs a go fund me page.

Alot of rural hospitals laying off staff because they aren't allowed to do elective surgeries because of statewide governors orders.

...don't forget spike strips at the checkpoints..they can help the unarmed officers with rogue outliers ..you're not going anywhere with 4 flat tires

Most companies that can have employees work from home will still do that regardless of a reopening in their state. And the public will wind up deciding what they are comfortable doing. Even if a restaurant opens for inside dining does not mean people will go. Some will and some won't be ready to do that. 

Talk of road blocks are just crazy. I live in one of the biggest hotspots and it's not crazy around here at all. There is no panic. People I talk to think some things should reopen, not everything. No large crowded events. But why should some big national chains be able to be open but a small one or two person store on Main St stay shut? The key is wearing masks like they have been doing in the Czech Republic since the beginning. If your around other people outside of your home or inside any establishment wear a mask. Around here you can go to Dairy Queen, which is crazy, but you can't go to a small retail mom and pop store down the street. You can go to Dunkin Donuts. It's stupid. 

The county I live in has almost a million people. There have been 1200 deaths. Almost two thirds of the deaths are in nursing homes. The state should be figuring out how to protect the most vulnerable. They have failed at that.

I know. it's the people out in the country that are freaking out. There are lots of mom and pop places in rural areas that want to open too.You might have to drive a half hour or longer to get to a 'big box' chain store like walmart..but the place in town cant open and might go out of business even.

Chatted with a Stanford pediatrician who lives a few houses away. Good news: it's highly unlikely to contract the virus when outdoors, so those activities can continue safely, with social distancing. The not so good news is that an effective vaccine will not be a reality, for years -  if ever. And there is no treatment, the Remdesivir 'cure' is a joke and being sold to convince people that they will be safe and return to normal. She said that this general consensus among the doctors, and well the only way to combat the virus is to have a healthy lifestyle and strong immune system. but we'd rather hear about a magic bullet, that just doesn't exist. As far as a vaccine on the horizon that will work, she wasn't hopeful as researchers have had no luck with previous Covid strains. So, there will be no getting back to normal,  Covid will continue to spread stealthily for years and kill vulnerable populations, and others. Just a matter of mitigating the situation and slowing the spread as much as possible. Oh, she also said that most testing  here in the US is so inaccurate - as high as 30 percent false results - so don't even bother. ugh.  most of the tech companies are telling folks that they can work from home indefinitely.  Opening up, is just going to continue the spread to essential workers and other poor suckers having to serve the public. Other countries that had better testing, universal healthcare  and better national leadership are better off than us...
 

Our local schools will be starting a month later than usual and distancing learning can continue for those who want it and classes will be staggered. 
 

Dave, for e.g., If no one in a small town has it...and no one comes into that town from a hotspot ...then the spread would be highly unlikely.

It would be easier to control the spread by locking down the actual hotspots. Its more enforceable

Chatted with a Stanford pediatrician who lives a few houses away. 

Playing whack-a-mole with entire towns and counties just isn’t possible, or even plausible really Greg. 

Americans won’t not travel to and from. It’s just not in their spoiled and mostly self absorbed American DNA.

>>You might have to drive a half hour or longer to get to a 'big box' chain store like walmart..but the place in town cant open and might go out of business even.<<

As you have observed here; this effectively just travels more people around to more places they otherwise wouldn’t be... spreading germs. No, “Country” people arent freaking out. We are used to isolation, long distance travel for provisions and supplies, and extended durations at home. That’s pretty much the essence of what makes people “country”.

I’m actually one of those people waiting for a badly needed surgery (not elective) at a small rural hospital that won’t happen for the foreseeable future. They are totally understaffed.

The way I see it, the hotspots are already locked down.  You basically leave it the same way it is there.. and open up the rest of the state with less population density. Most people in the city want to continue the quarantine and most people in the country want to open it up.

this way everyone wins. 

Like how the Canada/US border, or a tollbooth type checkpoint..you will have to prove you are an essential worker  and thus be subject to more vigorous testing/screening. ..like a nurse or a semi truck driver delivering essential goods foe e.g.

Alright mice alright.  We includes me.

And if you live in the country then you know there is more support in rural america to open up..they might not be 'freaking out'

Regarding America’s ability (individually and collectively) to defend and protect itself from coronavirus, what has really changed since this thing broke out?

There is still no effective course of treatment

There is no vaccine

There very little effective testing in place, and certainly not to the scale we require to make the kinds of decisions that need to be made, socially

Aggregate number of cases and deaths still rising every day

A bunch of corporations have gotten a lot richer

Inevitable country-wide housing crisis (and hurricane season) both incoming

Most primary and secondary schools out until at least September

Americans (overall, and generally) don’t have *child care*, nor could they afford it if they did. This is the #1 key to everything IMO.

What has changed since this started? What dynamics are working in our favor that weren’t a month or two ago? What progress has been made medically, scientifically, that suggests “everything is gonna be alright”? 

I mean - trying to reconcile “what people want” with how viral infections transmit, on individual and societal levels isn’t smart. Three really is no happy medium unless your tendency is to just ignore that this thing exists and cross your fingers.

Some people are just alarmists. This is a serious problem but the biggest issue is hospital capacity. As long as you can keep that manageable that's the key. 

Here's a prospective from someone on the front lines in the Bronx:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-...

>>Some people are just alarmists.<<

And some believe that as Americans; we have a collective responsibility not to blindly transmit viral infections among potentially vulnerable members of our communities with no treatment and no accurate, effective, wide-scale testing yet in existence.

Number of new cases is key - until that starts going down definitively, things need to be kept locked down. If we had wide-spread testing we could have some areas open up sooner than others, but by the time we know someone has it, they have likely infected several other people.

Who said blindly transmit the virus. I said wear a mask in public. Keep hospital capacity at a manageable level. Have enough PPE for those who rely on it.

I live in the epicenter of all of this and I'm not as worried about it as some of the people on this board who probably live in areas that have barely no corona activity. I know people who have the virus. I know people who have died. My county has over 16,000 cases. That's more than many countries. But most people are not in a panic. Do the right think when in public. Wear a mask, social distance. 

I'm not saying blindly reopen everything. Be smart about it but talking about road blocks and other crazy ideas is just wrong. My mother and father are in their 80's. They have health issues and are worried about going out, rightfully so. But they are missing doctors appointments for their health issues because of the fear from both the patient not wanting to go and the doctors who have office visits on hold right now. 

<<Who said blindly transmit the virus.>>

Nobody, this just happens to be how it actually transmits. By proximity. I don’t make the rules.

>> I said wear a mask in public. <<

Agree. And this only works if everyone is on board. How do you propose making everyone in America do this? As I look around my community when I’m out, I’m the one getting the looks (whatever). Your community is probably different. Fine. But this also assumes all masks are equally effective. They’re not. As long as nobody leaves town (anywhere), this idea could have had a chance. The reality is Americans refuse. 

>> Keep hospital capacity at a manageable level. <<

Okay. How? Saying it doesn’t actually accomplish this.

>>Have enough PPE for those who rely on it.<<

At this time we don’t. That’s sort of the point. Again, can’t just be spoken into existence.

Please don’t confuse awareness with worry. My worry level is zero. I try to make what I believe are smart choices. Speaking only for myself on that.

This is the level of personal sacrifice required, on a wartime footing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/magazine/personal-sacrifice-coronavir...

Lest we enable corona to become a mid-level insurgency that takes five years to defeat.

>>>Americans won’t not travel to and from. It’s just not in their spoiled and mostly self absorbed American DNA.

I know someone who flew 500 miles this last weekend to get an $8k better deal on a truck that they then drove back. 

>>> the only way to combat the virus is to have a healthy lifestyle and strong immune system

Not sure that is true. Yes it helps but it's more like Russian roulette. Being young and healthy gives you more empty chambers in the gun, but there are plenty of examples of young healthy people who ended up in the ICU. 

To me Covid feels more like altitude sickness. You can go to altitude 10 times and be fine and then on the 11th it will kill you. We just don't know why. 

>> These are all imaginary dates that don't have much to do with anything. <<

they have everything to do with pressure and perception, JP. Most all of this “mission accomplished / reopening America” hoopla is 100% credit and debt driven. Corporate lords require the money to start moving again and their slaves don’t have a choice but to keep paying. Collectively, we were able to absorb these difficulties during WW2 because by and large Americans lived within their means and weren’t buried by debts they could never mathematically repay. 

I hadn't thought of what I just read this in the letters to the editor of the Eugene Register-Guard in this way: "By the late 1950s, vaccines and antibiotics had been developed buying us a 50-year quasi-truce with nature. But that truce is ending."

The phrase "a 50-year quasi-truce with nature" seems apt.

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, significant risks remain. And reopening the economy will make matters worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?action=cl...​

Small businesses have been the most decimated. The destruction of the shutdown has been and will be far more devastating on the lower rungs of economic ladder.

Comparing this to WW2 is probably one of the dumbest things I've heard. Not calling you dumb, just the comparison.

Regardless, there is simply no logic to choosing "strategic" roll out dates. The dates don't mean anything. It's a fucking virus. It doesn't go away. A semi-separation strategy is just theater and politics. Just like the supermarkets installing one way arrows in their aisles. It doesn't do any good other than making soccer moms feel better.

If people don't feel comfortable going out, by all means stay in. Other people are comfortable with it.

What's really scary is what would happen if a true plague like disease is unleashed on this country. Based on what we're seeing with this virus, it would be catastrophic. I'm sure the Chinese are taking note.

>Not sure that is true.
 

Point being we don't have enough accurate testing nor any way to treat this virus, yet - and it's a long shot that we ever will. Until there is Natural herd immunity or keeping the entire country on quarantine until the virus has no place to thrive.. and we've already blew it so yeah, expect to be exposed and survive Covid or die.
 

Had we had better national leadership and pandemic preparations, the inevitable outcome  could have been less drastic in 'Mercia.
 

Forcing meat packing plants to reopen for example and subjecting workers in all industries back to work in unsafe conditions is more important than public health. Keeping the stock market profits high also more important than public health.

Oh, but watch Gilead stock surge along with which ever pharmaceutical companies claim to have a vaccine. And the millionaires and corporations profiting off millions in aid to 'small businesses'  

>>>If people don't feel comfortable going out, by all means stay in. Other people are comfortable with it.

First off I agree with you, but I don't think this has been an honest debate. I think there are a whole bunch of people who don't understand what is coming. Pandemics always hit cities first and then spread to the country. We have a whole bunch of people who have been told that this won't hit them and we need to re-open. If people are willing to take that risk based on the facts that is fine, but they aren't getting those facts. 

The only reason Trump wants to re-open now because he wants to be able to point to a recovery by November, but he is telling people that the worst is over. 

Here is a great comparison that shows how the pandemic is doing in the US vs NY, CT, and NJ. They are trending down. The rest of the US isn't

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-covid19-outlook-nationwide

>> Comparing this to WW2 is probably one of the dumbest things I've heard. Not calling you dumb, just the comparison. <<

I’m suggesting the scale of collective effort and awareness necessary to engage against the virus should be comparable to the effort that was required during WWII. Is there some part of that comparison that you disagree with? 

Not comparing it to a war, where people are being shot and gassed and blown up. Clearly those are different circumstances.

Sure, we could probably disagree about some of the nuts and bolts.

well, this should be interesting....

Published: 2020/05/04 from https://jambands.com/news/2020/05/04/missouri-governor-allows-return-of-...

Missouri Governor Allows Return of Concerts

Missouri Governor Mike Parsons has authorized the return of live music events as early as today, May 4. The decision was outlined in his Show Me Strong Recovery Plan, which was released last week.

Can I attend an event at a large venue or stadium, or go to a movie theater?
Yes. However, seating shall be spaced out according to social distancing requirements. This will apply to events such as amusement parks and attractions, concerts, drive-ins, funerals, museums, school graduations and weddings.

Meanwhile, city officials in major Missouri cities, including St. Louis, have stated that larger gatherings and concerts will not resume along with the Governor’s plan. “[St. Louis] remains under a Stay At Home order and will continue beyond the State of Missouri’s reopening next week. Individuals AND businesses must continue to follow guidelines set by the City of St. Louis,” read a post by the St. Louis Department of Health.

“Though portions of the state will begin to slowly reopen Monday, [St. Louis] will not,” wrote St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson in her own post. “While we are developing a phased approach for our own reopening, the City’s #StayHome orders remain in place.”

“We will continue to be guided by data, not dates,” Mayor Krewson concluded.

To read Missouri’s full recovery plan, click here.

For a full list of tours and events impacted by COVID-19 visit Relix.com/Coronavirus.

Well, bless their hearts.

i am honestly so exited to dose and go to a dead show with social distancing, like please please please let it happen

Not stopping incoming flights from Europe was the big blunder early on. Most of those flights go into JFK and Newark airports. Plus the American citizens coming back from Europe were not screened when they returned. This fueled the outbreak. There is (was) so much international travel into NY on a daily basis for both business and pleasure.

Branson will be the new killing fields.

This is one of the more accessible articles on re-opening - the comments are also worth reading - ymmv.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

That's a great article.   Read it a few days ago.  Highly recommended.   

In fact, I sent it to my HR as they are trying to schedule office reopening in an open office setting.

Alaska got it right.  

At the risk of making you uncomfortable, Greg, could you explain how Alaska, with it's low number of confirmed cases, it's relatively small population, few people traveling in and out of the state, and it's low population density, is in any way comparable to a state like New Jersey?