Polls
Forums:
Attempting a civil discussion about polls...not personal animus, not any particular candidate or race, but the accuracy of polling. My first instinct as of late has been to figure out the exact opposite of the spoon-fed narrative and that seems to be closer to the actual truth than the propaganda. I think there's a calculated decision to skew polling to arrive at whatever outcome fits the script, something was drastically wrong with the 2016 polling and it feels like déjà vu all over again. Maybe these polls are accurate and maybe they're not, but if the polls are wildly wrong again I think we can conclude it wasn't innocent happenstance.
- Log in to post comments
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: 2 Room Shack
Why listen to any of the hype
Why listen to any of the hype or propaganda? Which ever outlet you choose?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/05/politics/the-forecast-democrats-governors...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
"Why listen to any of the
"Why listen to any of the hype or propaganda? Which ever outlet you choose?"
Respectfully, we're all surrounded by it.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
I think part of the dynamic
I think part of the dynamic is the playing field is a constant state of flux, then there's nefarious, calculated manipulation...my gut feeling tells me this is entirely off. In 2018 you'd think they had it to a practical science.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Could Artificial intelligence
Could artificial intelligence surgically remove bias in polling, like via detection and avoidance?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
(No subject)
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
^ I see you got the memo
^ I see you got the memo
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Druba...do they still have
Druba...do they still have the Ruch Barter Fair?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
I don't live down there, so
I don't live down there, so don't know
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
I found this...sounds like
I found this...sounds like the locals freaked out on it, it was one of the great scenes ever, very special
"The Southern Oregon Barter Fair is a nonprofit corporation that held an annual fair in Oregon between 1978 and 1996. The Fair describes its event as a religious gathering, a “harvest celebration and gathering of ․ ‘new age,’ ‘back-to-the-land’ hippies and friends,” and a “counterculture crafts fair” where artisans and vendors set up booths for people to buy crafts. In order to hold several previous events, most recently the 1996 event, the Fair had to obtain a permit from Jackson County, Oregon, under the Oregon Mass Gathering Act, Or. Rev. Stat. §§ 433.735–.770, 433.990(6) (2001). This appeal presents the question whether, as the Fair contends, the Act is facially unconstitutional under the First Amendment."
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/first_amendment
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
I've spent more time at the
I've spent more time at the Oregon Country fair in Veneta, but know folks that have worked / played at the Barter fair, just got busy with life and haven't been in over 15 years... the other festivals / fairs really dropped of the radar
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
https://www.youtube.com/watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbEhts7g-4U
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
OCF
OCF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYH2sofMS58
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
How about a live rendition of a Druba Teddy Bear's Picnic?
https://www.e-chords.com/chords/traditional/teddy-bears-picnic
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Jerry & David
https://youtu.be/Mj2V63dSQtc
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
https://www.youtube.com/watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dyaLQ7OMFE
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
My favorite Garcia & Grisman story is hitchhiking across the country in late December when they actually closed I-70 because of a blizzard to see Jerry & David play God Rest Ye Merry Gentleman days before Christmas. I traded stickers to a guy working for Bill Graham for what looked like a ticket for chocolate milk in the lunch line of elementary school, but it got me in the gig.
https://youtu.be/CGaUm-M7ZNc
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Druba, you may already know
Druba, you may already know this one, but I know you could play it, you're an accomplished guitarist
https://www.e-chords.com/chords/public-domain/god-rest-ye-merry-gentlemen
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
It's a common one to slip
It's a common one to slip into a middle of jam or solo, especially this time of year (not the whole song, just a little phrasing)
Jethro Tull
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lgYtO2J0zQ
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
This is a great song solo
This is a great song solo acoustic
https://rukind.com/html/music/gdtunes/Likeroad.htm
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
This is a great song solo
Connecticut JGB
https://youtu.be/ghMjcWNgS6w
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Upstate New York... 1969
https://youtu.be/Fr_7SBGDqBo
https://youtu.be/3Q3j-i7GLr0
https://youtu.be/hIccZsURyLc
https://youtu.be/Bosa0xwfk2g
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: nebulous nelly
>Attempting a civil
>Attempting a civil discussion about polls...not personal animus<
Poor little Bag of Shit doesn't like being called out for supporting a racist.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Andean Flight
Weird, when the OP calls for
Weird, when the OP calls for a civil discussion about an idea that is obviously leading-in to other ideas of a specific bias, and then spends the rest of the thread talking about something totally unrelated. Sorry Bryen, not a fan of what you do around the zone.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
A poll is only as good as its
A poll is only as good as its questions and lack of bias, as well as how the results are reported.
Do you agree with Trump’s policies:
a. Fully
b. Mostly
c. Somewhat
d. A little
e. Not at all
If a majority check a-d, results can be interpreted as most Americans agree with Trump’s policies. However, there’s a huge difference between a and d.
Polls are like statistics- they can be used to prove or disprove anything.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
I enjoy taking part in those
I enjoy taking part in those phone polls. I always ask who is paying for it. They sometimes are able to divulge that info. A few questions in and it always becomes apparent.
They don’t tell you that one of your choices is “no answer,” but it is. I often use that response to a shitty question or shitty choices of responses.
Both sides play the same games when it comes to polling.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
I stopped doing phone polls,
I stopped doing phone polls, it got to the point where I was always having to correct the question... all spin and no substance!
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: 2 Room Shack
bastards be textin' me.
bastards be textin' me.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Ken D.
After 2016 and some
After 2016 and some surprising upsets in this years primaries, I don't trust polls and pay them little attention.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
Apologies for Paul Kantner's
Apologies for Paul Kantner's language/negative energy, if the edit function lasted more than 5 minutes I would remove that rendition, it's a beautiful day...just said that to a neighbor and thought to myself "that's a great band name".
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
https://weather.com/news/news
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-11-05-midterm-elections-2018-will-wea...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
The premise of your original
The premise of your original post is just plain wrong.
Polls and the companies that administer them are in the business of being accurate.
After the self-admitted errors in 2016, all pollsters have tried to adapt to the new landscape of potential voters in order to be as accurate as possible.
They want to be accurate, not tell people what they want to hear. Otherwise, they will be out of business.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Bryen
I disagree
I disagree
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
You should just listen to
You should just listen to your gut, right? lol
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Anthony
Most polls conducted by
Most polls conducted by professional polling organizations are very accurate. 538 equated Clinton's chances of winning the 2016 presidential election to making a 35 yard field goal in the NFL. Any footballers know how many field goals of 35 yards or less were missed in the NFL this year?