Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day
Forums:
Any pony degenerates here on the Zone? It's looking like a really wet weekend in Louisville.
Only six of the 19 horses in the 2025 running have experience running on a muddy or sloppy track. And two of the six did so on Japanese tracks.
No. 2 Neoequos: The colt won an allowance race on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 23 for trainer Saffie Joseph. Neoequos’ racing debut came on a sloppy track on July 21, 2024, but the colt “got bumped hard by an inner foe at the start and lost the rider, completed the circuit, was caught shortly after and walked off,” according to the Equibase chart. No. 5 American Promise: On his sixth attempt, American Promise broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Previously, the son of Triple Crown winner Justify had finished eighth on a sloppy Churchill Downs track on Sept. 27, 2024.
No. 5 American Promise: On his sixth attempt, American Promise broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Previously, the son of Triple Crown winner Justify had finished eighth on a sloppy Churchill Downs track on Sept. 27, 2024.
No. 6 Admire Daytona: A Japanese entry, Admire Daytona finished fourth on a muddy track in Tokyo on Oct. 6, 2024.
No. 7 Luxor Cafe: Another Japanese entry, Luxor Cafe finished second on a muddy track at Sapporo on Aug. 31, 2024. No. 13 Publisher: The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Publisher ran second on a muddy track to American Promise at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, 2024 for trainer Steve Asmussen. He finished third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27, 2024. No. 16 Coal Battle: Trained by 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle won the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on Nov. 8, 2024. His racing debut came with a win on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs on July 25, 2024.
No. 13 Publisher: The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Publisher ran second on a muddy track to American Promise at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, 2024 for trainer Steve Asmussen. He finished third on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27, 2024.
No. 16 Coal Battle: Trained by 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle won the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on Nov. 8, 2024. His racing debut came with a win on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs on July 25, 2024.
Final Gambit will be making his first start on the dirt Saturday. The Jeff Ruby Steaks winner has run in rainy conditions on the all-weather track at Turfway Park.
- Log in to post comments
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: he who was Crabneesh
You are correct about the
You are correct about the slop but I like Journalism because of his speed histories, post position, pedigree & personal racing history. I think taking him in a show position will cause your $ to double-up.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: MarkD
Coal Battle to show,
Coal Battle to show, Journalism to place.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philnweird
Journalism is the best horse
Journalism is the best horse in the field but there's some mild concerns. He's ran all his races on dry tracks in California and against smaller fields. Will rain/mud and 18 other horses affect him?
A few others of note:
Burnham Square has won 3 of his last 4 races and closed extremely strong to win the Blue Grass Stakes. And his jockey won the Oaks and Derby both last year. BUT, it's been 30 years since a horse has swept the Blue Grass Stakes and the Derby.
Two horses were sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah: Publisher (2nd in Arkansas Derby, two other board finishes in mud) and Luxor Cafe (born and bred in Kentucky but has primarily raced in Japan. I'm throwing him out for that reason but I've read he's looked good in workouts).
The weather is the big unknown. If it's a slopfest any horse in the field could win. I'll see what it looks like tomorrow before I place any bets.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: treat island
The only time I went to a
The only time I went to a track I bet on a horse because it had pink socks. I won $38 which was a lot for me because I was between money. I'd have to bet on pink socks if I went again.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: JP (J Bomb)
Putting all my chips on
Putting all my chips on Sovereignty.
Anyone else who wants to win can climb aboard.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: fishcane
Not a racing fan by any
Not a racing fan by any stretch but found it interesting to read that every horse in this race is a descendant of Secretariat
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Mice elf
Good luck had just stung me
Good luck had just stung me
To the race track I did go
She bet on one horse to win
And I bet on another to show
The odds were in my favor
I had 'em five to one
When that nag to win came around the track
Sure enough, she had won
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: _________
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Tatters !!
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: he who was Crabneesh
My $500 show bet on
My $500 show bet on Journalism = $925,
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Sless is Best
Damn, Tatters! Great call!
Damn, Tatters! Great call! What did you win?!?!
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: JP (J Bomb)
Damn, Tatters! Great call!
Damn, Tatters! Great call! What did you win?!?!<<<
I actually gave up gambling in 1998 (after the Vegas Phish shows) but know someone involved in the horse biz. I just listen to his well informed recommendations.
That being said I did take a cool $1 off my son. It's now proudly displayed on the fridge, next to the priceless 1-900-RUN-DEAD magnet.