Covid Prediction From April Holding Up Pretty Well
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Lockdown can’t be sustained more than 1-2 weeks after peak ICU occupancy passes, so it will be lifted in mid-May in the UK and possibly as early as May 1st in the USA….So. The immediate peak hospital occupancy will pass, lockdown will be lifted sector by sector (or all at once) and region by region … and the 50% of COVID19 cases who are asymptomatic will go back to work, mingling with the uninfected.
1-4 weeks later there will be a secondary surge in infections and it’ll follow the same exponential growth as the first spike in Feb/March. And lockdown will resume, probably in mid-June….If the howls of rage at the first lockdown are deafening, the second lockdown will be worse: think of toddlers being sent back to bed with no supper. And that’s the lucky work-from-home class: the working poor—with no savings and jobs they need to be physically present for — are going to be increasingly angry and fractious at their exposure. Expect civil disobedience and possibly summer riots unless central banks throw money at the grassroots — and not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week.
….So we’re going to see repeated 4-6 week lockdown periods alternating with 2-4 week “business as usual” patches. Somewhere during the second or third lockdown most of the pubs/bars/hotels/restaurants that hibernated during the first lockdown and came back from the dead will give up the ghost: by September-November the damage to about 10-30% of the economy, disproportionately the service sector, will be permanent (for some value of “permanent” that means not coming back until after the pandemic, growing afresh from zero rather than reviving from hibernation).
….By September there’s going to be social unrest just about everywhere that hasn’t nailed down a massive social spending/social security project on a scale that makes the New Deal look restrained and conservative. And that’s going to be the picture until June or July 2022.
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/04/itll-all-be-over-by-...
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Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Mice elf
lol at what people think
lol at what people think “lockdown” means.
Best Buy operating on limited hours isn’t a “lockdown”
Requiring the wear of a mask in public spaces does not constitute a lockdown
nor does drive-thru only service at Starbucks...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Ken D.
Thankfully, the number of
Thankfully, the number of daily deaths in the US has been steadily decreasing from a high of 2,693 back on April 21 down to only 267 yesterday. At the same time, positive tests are holding steady or actually increasing in some areas, with the vast majority of people being asymptomatic. Some scientists are wondering if the virus is mutating to become less deadly or that people are still being exposed enough to result in a positive test, but aren't getting a sufficient viral load to cause serious symptoms because of the mitigation efforts.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Andean Flight
I've been in real lockdown
I've been in real lockdown for 5 or 6 weeks now. Unfortunately, people have not respected the quarantine here. Many out of necessity, many out of idiocy. But me? 6 weeks where my biggest trip has been to the park two blocks away so my dog can take a shit and run around a bit. Craziness...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Without a net
Live updates: More than two dozen states report coronavirus surges as Trump administration prepares for possible second wave
A White House adviser said Sunday that the Trump administration is preparing for a possible second wave in the novel coronavirus pandemic this fall, as 29 states and U.S. territories logged an increase in their seven-day average of new reported cases after many lifted restrictions in recent weeks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/22/coronavirus-live-update...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Hitchhiker awaiting "true call"
Peninsula beaches were
Peninsula beaches were crowded yesterday.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Without a net
Young people in the US South
Young people in the US South and West are increasingly getting coronavirus
Updated 10:43 AM ET, Mon June 22, 2020
(CNN)The major thrust of new coronavirus cases in the United States is in the South and West, where officials say more young people are ignoring social distancing measures and testing positive.
Young people are more likely to have milder outcomes from coronavirus, but they can still infect others who are more at risk.
"With younger age of recent infections in at least some places such as Florida, expect a lower death rate in this wave ... until the 20-40 year olds who are infected today go on to infect others," Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Twitter.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/22/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: fishcane
It was all a conspiracy to
It was all a conspiracy to tank the economy and Donald Trump. At least we’ve moved on from the attempt to overturn 2016 election results crybabies
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Strangha
Geez, fishcane you think "we"
Geez, fishcane you think "we" killed 120,000 people and tanked the world economy to get rid of Donald, who was up for re-election in November? Wow. I hope that was sarcasm.
It might have more to do with the failed response of "the occupant" to protect the citizens of this country.
He had a pandemic playbook and officials to handle it. Fired them, threw out the book, and covered his eyes.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: El Nino
The southern spike in cases
The southern spike in cases started about seven days ago so we will probably start seeing deaths climb in another two weeks. The reason deaths are going down is because the entire northeast corridor, which had the worst out break in the world by far, is slowing down. Hopefully the new steroid treatment will help keep the death toll down this time around.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: fishcane
Yes the first part was
Yes the first part was sarcasm.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
It was nice of our government
It was nice of our government to infect all those nursing homes and kill of all those old folks. Really made some room for new clients.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Thumbkinetic
" . . . Trump administration
" . . . Trump administration prepares . . . "
As if.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Without a net
>>> It was nice of our government to infect all those nursing homes and kill of all those old folks. Really made some room for new clients. <<<
‘They Just Dumped Him Like Trash’: Nursing Homes Evict Vulnerable Residents
Nursing homes across the country are kicking out old and disabled residents and sending them to homeless shelters and rundown motels
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/business/nursing-homes-evictions-disc...
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
^The city of New York
^The city of New York transferred over 4k recovering covid patients to nursing homes. Why? They didn't even use the medical ship that was docked at their port. Good idea to infect all those people. Now they can get a new wave of elderly folks in there to infect
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Dr. Benway
people are still being
i still wear a mask and do the basics so that folks around me who might be worried feel safe, but ive recently stopped the whole extra hand washing/sanitizing stuff except to clean my hands right before eating.
i figure the latest info now is that getting infected via infected surfaces is either unlikely or not possible, and being exposed to small amounts of virus, to small to infect you, is how immunity is formed...so one could reasonably assume that exposure to infected surfaces might actually be beneficial to your immune systems ability to fight off the virus on your next potential exposure, at least for folks w healthy immune systems.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: 2 Room Shack
we went to the grocery this
we went to the grocery this weekend. it was packed, 1/2 of crowd was no mask.
lots of people like their freedom fries down here....
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
I'm surprised masks aren't
I'm surprised masks aren't required for entry everywhere. Just wait until the death rate spikes again and all of the team sports leagues are forced to cancel any type of games.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: le hammer
>>>>people like their freedom
>>>>people like their freedom fries down here<<<<
You can't eat freedom fries with a mask on.
>>>>went to the grocery this weekend. it was packed, 1/2 of crowd was no mask.<<<<
Lord don't I wish half the people in my western KY town wore masks.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Is forgiveness possible?
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Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: El Nino
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Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Druba
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Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: treat island
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: MarkD
Lake County (California)
Lake County (California) recently mandated that anyone in public must wear a mask. In my experience, there is about a 90-95% compliance.
We are a sparsely populated county, but only 41 cases/no deaths is still pretty good.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Tim
Hey King Trump, ever hear of
Hey King Trump, ever hear of Harry Truman??
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: El Nino
Perspective on Texas
Perspective on Texas reporting 5,489 positive COVID tests out of 48,000 tests. New York tested 440,000 people over 7 days and found 4,524 cases. Pretty clear why NY is now imposing travel restrictions on incoming Texans.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: jazfish
Good on you, Mark.
Good on you, Mark.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: ogkb
joe biden, pelosi, schumer
joe biden, pelosi, schumer and the corporate dems are against M4A -- just like trump and the GOP.
why?