Is The Lockdown Futile
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Philzone Refugee
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Here's an interesting perspective from someone studying the Swedish model:
The Invisible Pandemic
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext
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Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
The purpose of the lockdown
The purpose of the lockdown is to flatten the curve. It was never intended to reduce cases, but rather to make it easier for the healthcare system to deal. That article is t saying anything new or groundbreaking, just reminding us that many are going to get it at some point, and people will die.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
If the curve has been leveled
If the curve has been leveled off, it's time to get on with the show. People should take the steps they need to strengthen their immune systems, and if they have a compromised immune system and are worried about catching the virus (which appears inevitable) and dying, they can figure out how to isolate themselves.
If there is another large spike in infections and our medical facilities are overrun, then shut things down again, but why have the super majority sitting on their hands if they're not going to die from this? This would be an exercise in futility.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
The lockdown was imposed more
The lockdown was imposed more or less so wall st and big business could rape the federal trust. Sweden went on proven science that had worked during past pandemics. We tried to sell a 1918 model to the world that had not proven success at all.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
Not sure if that link is
Not sure if that link is working, so here's the article:
>>>>>>>
Johan Giesecke
Published:May 05, 2020
PlumX Metrics
Many countries (and members of their press media) have marvelled at Sweden's relaxed strategy in the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: schools and most workplaces have remained open, and police officers were not checking one's errands in the street. Severe critics have described it as Sweden sacrificing its (elderly) citizens to quickly reach herd immunity.
1 The death toll has surpassed our three closest neighbours, Denmark, Norway, and Finland, but the mortality remains lower than in the UK, Spain, and Belgium.
2 It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.
3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries.
PCR testing and some straightforward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 20–25% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). 98–99% of these people are probably unaware or uncertain of having had the infection; they either had symptoms that were severe, but not severe enough for them to go to a hospital and get tested, or no symptoms at all. Serology testing is now supporting these assumptions.
4 These facts have led me to the following conclusions. Everyone will be exposed to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it—it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will also have mild symptoms. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them. Admittedly, countries have managed to slow down spread so as not to overburden health-care systems, and, yes, effective drugs that save lives might soon be developed, but this pandemic is swift, and those drugs have to be developed, tested, and marketed quickly. Much hope is put in vaccines, but they will take time, and with the unclear protective immunological response to infection, it is not certain that vaccines will be very effective.
In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.
I declare no competing interests.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
>>The lockdown was imposed
>>The lockdown was imposed more or less so wall st and big business could rape the federal trust.
Citation? How about anything factual to back that up?
Seems to me that if that was their goal, they've cut of their nose to spite their face. The end result has been terrible for Wall St. and most big businesses.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
Citation for what? Would you
Citation for what? Would you like see the bills put in place to fund wall st and big business? I'm working for a company right now who's directly benefiting. They most likely received a 8-10 million dollar SBA loan which has to be spent in 8 weeks. For them that's free labor. With their existing contracts already set in place this is a highly lucrative position for them. And wall st is bouncing back and will be fine while they collected 2.2 trillion dollars! Do you want more of a citation than that? It happened in the blink of an eye as well. Just disguised robbery using the pandemic for free money. Aside form that Trump practically gave target and Walmart a free national presidential endorsement saying "these companies supply our world and cannot close". That's my take on it. You can formulate your own opinions but the businesses who are large enough and spend enough from day to day operations who received SBA loans and or bailouts like the airlines will be fine and if anything were given an opportunity to cut staff and reconfigure employment to their benefit. Although people are saying that SBAs are for "payroll" that is not true. There are many different th info these companies can do to spend the money for their business without providing payroll. You have google and can look up the details or citations if you please. I'm sure you're capable of that BK.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
I'm not asking for a citation
I'm not asking for a citation for the end result, but rather that the reason for the lockdown itself was so the companies could rape the federal trust.
Of course some big businesses benefitted, while people are starving. You're essentially saying that some people sat in a room and made a conscious decision to lock it down, with the sole purpose being that a few businesses would reap the rewards. Where's that coming from?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: El Nino
I’m so sick of hearing about
I’m so sick of hearing about Sweden. They suck at this. 319 deaths per million is one of the worst in the world. You want a model to look at look at Germany. 90 deaths per million while having an open border with Italy at 505 deaths per million and France with 403 deaths per million.
Just because a bunch of racist show up to protest who will show up to protest anything doesn’t mean that people want to open. The majority of Americans don’t want to open which means they won’t go to your restaurant or shop when you do open.
The only way out of this is to make people feel safe, and that won’t happen until we have rapid testing and contact tracing. Which is what Germany has and South Korea has, but apparently since we made America great we can’t have that here.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Thumbkinetic
His ass.
His ass.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
That's just my take on it BK.
That's just my take on it BK. Just my opinion. I don't have any kind of argument for you and I'm willing to listen to and accept your opinions and learn from them. For some that would be hard to believe and others not so hard. The internet seems to be a place where mass articles come out simultaneously and stimulate hate, division and negativity for people to pin against each other but I'm learning that most arguments fail short of any kind of constructive platforms and more or less become a waste. For me, my biggest question is why we immediately compared this current pandemic to the worst pandemic since industrialization, and even further more why we followed that paradigm against "herd immunity" especially a paradigm which didn't prove to have success and one that's over 100 yrs old. Hopefully in hindsight people will ask those questions on a grander level so we can find answers.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
I get all that, Timpane. I
I get all that, Timpane. I just have a really hard time with all these conspiracy theories that are flying around.
I don't know why we did it this way. I do know that the medical systems in Vermont were never overwhelmed. Big businesses, small businesses and individuals have all been hammered.
As El Niño pointed out, our failing has been in the lack of testing and tracking, 21st Century shit. Without it, we're in 1918.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
I 100% agree with the lack of
I 100% agree with the lack of testing and I again ask why that's been buried in the media? No one even asking why anymore. And the contact tracing I completely 100% disagree with but I accept that their are those who have that opinion. Although there's no evidence that it does anything but put a bandaid on top of the bandage which is mass testing. Human tracking is dangerous and is utterly useless without testing.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
I'm so sick of hearing about
I'm so sick of hearing about Sweden<<<<
The Swedes will gain herd immunity (70% of the population develops immunity) within 18 months. The policy of shutting everything down will draw that process out much longer.
The Swedes aren't harming the well-being of children by halting their education and preventing them from socializing, which child psychologists identify as a key component of healthy childhood psychological development.
The Swedes aren't putting millions out of work and wiping out the hard work and dreams of small business owners.
Sure, some people with legitimate health issues or excessive paranoia may remain cloistered, however, many will not. When the people remaining sheltered see that the far majority of those who are venturing out aren't dying, more of them will come out of isolation.
Personally, I can get through this by selling online. I get calls every day from people wondering if I'm open, when I'm going to open, it I'll let them come and shop privately, so I'm pretty sure I'll have foot traffic once I reopen. Getting online selling up and running has been the silver lining in all this for me, as I will continue with that after reopening, and it should replace any shortfall in revenue if foot traffic retail is lagging.
My main issue is whether I feel it is safe for myself, my staff and my customers. This article is persuading me that we each have our own choice to make about what we feel is safe, but that thinking you can avoid catching this virus is a fool's proposition and just delaying the inevitable. Eat healthy, exercise, get good rest, practice good hygiene. Make sure the health system has the equipment and infrastructure to care for the sick. That's about all we can do.
Reminds me of Ray Davies line, "paranoia big destroyer".
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Ken D.
This will be the most studied
This will be the most studied pandemic in human history and once the thing runs its course, we will have a better understanding of how well all these extraordinary measures worked or didn't work. If anything, Sweden is the closest thing to a "control sample" we will have.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Is forgiveness possible?
People are dying needlessly
People are dying needlessly in Sweden - but thankfully they aren't harming the well-being of children while allowing the deaths of the parents and grandparents of those children.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
Is it needless or is it
Is it needless or is it inevitable, Six?
I have a 90 year old aunt over there, so I have a personal stake in this. She lives in a remote village on the West Coast, far away from Stockholm, Gothenburg or any areas where large outbreaks have happened, and still lives on her own with one of my cousins and his son nearby to help when she needs it. Fortunately, she is healthy now. She sent an email to all her grandchildren last month, telling them she misses seeing them, but that she is taking care of herself and wants them to all do the same.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
What exactly do we know for
What exactly do we know for sure about this virus?
It looks like it's more contagious than the flu. We can't cull data com the US because of our shitty testing rates, but countries that have tested show high rates of both infection and antibodies. It also looks like more people come in contact with it than get sick from it. Most who get sick just get sick, not terribly ill.
It seems that it's more fatal than the flu, but nowhere near what they expected. Fatalities in NYC look high, but if over 40% of the population has been in contact with the virus, it's actually not that high.
It mostly affects the elderly and those with prior conditions, which is like the flu. It can also kill the random healthy and young people, also like the flu. Unlike the flu, it doesn't go after the very young.
What else do we really know, and what have I said that is wrong? I turn on the nightly news and get barraged with all this pseudo info, some of it conflicting.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
>>Is it needless or is it
>>Is it needless or is it inevitable, Six?
That's a great question. About a month ago there was a woman on the local news. She was irate because her 96 year old aunt, living in an assisted living facility, caught it and died. She blamed the facility. I had to think, she was 96 and living in a home. It could have been anything, right? At what point is it just old age?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Is forgiveness possible?
>>>>Is it needless or is it
>>>>Is it needless or is it inevitable, Six?
It is a good question and gets to the heart of what we value most as both a society and as individuals.
What is most important: Life? Money/the economy? The needs of the many? Ayn Rand? Jesus?
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: long live the dead
No one knows shit
No one knows shit
I do know that walking near a cliff on loose soil in a high wind is dangerous
Money or lives. You decide your priorities
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: long live the dead
Ok, I'll bite
Ok, I'll bite
the only shit i know
is executive branch excrement
So much more pain than than if it was managed with a modicum of competency and caring about humans ( not money or politics)
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Is forgiveness possible?
Any modicum of caring about
Any modicum of caring about humans AT ALL would be the first caring shown by the current administration.
I have always believed that almost all politicians do not care about other people - but I have never seen a politician blatantly assemble an entire administration around not caring about anyone (except for themselves).
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Ken D.
>>>>turn on the nightly news
>>>>turn on the nightly news and get barraged with all this pseudo info, some of it conflicting.
Heard an episode of Freakonomics Radio on NPR this morning discussing how humans have a built-in “negativity bias,” which means we give bad news much more power than good. That is nothing new ("If it bleeds, it leads"), but still good to remind ourselves of that negativity bias when evaluating all the doom and gloom news.
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/reasons-to-be-cheerful/
For example, we hear so much about deaths from Covid-19, but don't hear as much about how it has around a 99.5% survival rate, how millions of people have already recovered (and now can't transmit it for some period of time), how many of the emergency "field hospitals" that were set up were thankfully never used, and how the global death rate five months into this is just a fraction of that of many past pandemics (like the 1968 Hong Kong Flu) presumably because of the extraordinary measures people have been taking to slow the spread of this virus.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
The motto of the entire Trump
The motto of the entire Trump administration:
Ask not what I can do for the country, ask what the country can do for me.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Pipe Slingin'
Hey Brian,
Hey Brian,
Might I offer this alternative ?
>>>"The motto of the entire Trump administration:"
"I'm stuffing my pockets before burning this shithole to the ground."
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Briank
Hey Redneck,
Hey Redneck,
Good one, but I think he's stuffing his pockets while burning it to the ground.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: ImusDeadCo
Carlin on germs and immune
Carlin on germs and immune systems
https://youtu.be/JSbT7JVNEU4
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Zzzzzz
>>>>>>>>Money or lives. You
>>>>>>>>Money or lives. You decide your priorities
This.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
Why does everyone pretend to
Why does everyone pretend to care about lives now? Hundreds of thousands of Africans die every year from war. We are avg about 100k Syrians every year that we kill, but now we "care about people's safety"? And Money or lives? Really? There are people who can't put food on the table tonight. People who are losing their livelihoods and businesses. Complete life transitions and transformations. I say if you can reach out a helping hand to someone you know who may need it. Help someone else without expecting anything in return. There are people who need it and you will be doing more than just wearing a mask when you leave your house.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: _
I hear there is a strong
I hear there is a strong "shaming" culture on social media (FB in particular) oriented towards "shaming" folks who leave their house to go get some groceries, breathe some actual fresh air, etc.
Who would possibly have the time, energy, inclination or even the money (which = time .. well, actually, I can think of a couple people on this site) to do such a thing? Anyone verify that that's a "thing"? lol
I mean, that's more conspiracy reality than anything you can ask to see a citation for... #socialenengineering. Look it up.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Zzzzzz
>>>Why does everyone pretend
>>>Why does everyone pretend to care about lives now?
You are the one who wrote "now". it's a comment that applies, as you note, to a much broader spectrum in time and geography. I've have always felt this is an issue, not just "now"
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: ogkb
how come pelosi and trump
how come pelosi and trump made small businesses fight each other over the eidl stimulus?
how come the dems and republicans have agreed to send trillions to wall st in literally no time, yet small businesses can't even apply for
stimulus b/c they ran out of funds?
how come small businesses have been completely abandoned, yet the corps get everything they want.
wall st got bailed out. main st got fucked.
and they want us to vote in november. lol.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Philzone Refugee
I had hopes for that EIDL
I had hopes for that EIDL money. They're only letting you apply if you're an agricultural business. EIDL is basically a $10,000 grant, which would have covered three months rent and some needed business supplies for me. The only other option they're offering now is the PPP, which requires you to put your business up as collateral if you can't repay the loan. I would rather avoid debt and the spectre or having my business seized. Stay creative and find other ways through this without a handout. If it doesn't kill you, it only makes you stronger.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
I applied for EIDL like 6
I applied for EIDL like 6 weeks ago? I have no employees (Strike 1) and my particular business/industry is in good shape for now (Strike 2).
The economy is on the edge of a cliff right now. Markets will be negatively impacted by increasing unemployed and businesses failing, both big and small. We are fucked financially for the next decade, but we haven't see 1% of the fallout yet. Buckle up.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
now is the time to tranistion
now is the time to transition to hotdogs.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: An organ grinder’s tune
joking aside, i wish the best
joking aside, i wish the best to you both ned and java.
it's infuriating to see dog shit chain restaurants get bailed out 1st. again, you can also blame the shit bag banks.
and clearly those banks which were bailed out by you and i could afford to postpone/halt mortage and rent for 3+ mos.....
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
I will have to dust off that
I will have to dust off that business plan, turtle. Maybe add loose joints to the menu.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: ParadiseWaits
The majority of Americans don
The majority of Americans don’t want to open which means they won’t go to your restaurant or shop when you do open
I agree, the handful of protestors aren't representative of most Americans. I was laid off before SIP was declared, because all of our customers were canceling appointments due to the virus outbreak in China. It was nuts, the phone was ringing off the hook with cancelations months in advance. Most people don't want to risk death over convenience.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
Pyramid, were not supposed to
Pyramid, were not supposed to ask questions. We are just supposed to stay inside and wear masks while the world goes to shit.
Let's get a list of worldwide expendables, shall we?
Puerto Rican's- fuck em they're not really Americans
Black Americans illegal killed thrown in jail and civil rights violated daily- Justice system does nothing
mexicans/immigrants- One or two days of protesting that led to nothing
Over 300k/yr avg dead in Africa from war- nobody cares
avg. 100k/yr dead in Syria from drone bombs- nobody cares
destroy (liberate)Iraq and Lybia illegally- United Nations does nothing people eventually forget and don't care anymore
Majority old people folks start to die in UK, Germany and Italy after the Chinese already had issues with contagious virus-
Holy shit we better shut the whole fucking world down. Stay inside, keep your distance and wear a mask. We are trying to save lives.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
Timpy projecting what he
Timpy projecting what he thinks other people think. Wrong again, pal.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
Not projecting. Making a
Not projecting. Making a point that there's no outrage when people who aren't white die. Keep moving a long with you privelaged self, Ned. Not surprising that post would be hard for you to understand.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: New & Improved
That was textbook projection,
That was textbook projection, timpy. You know nothing about me, my advocacy, philanthropy and/or volunteerism.
Tell you what, why not tell the group how you feel, and then ask how others feel. It's pretty simple, actually.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Old Fart Message Board
Already told the group how I
Already told the group how I feel. I don't have any hatred and negative for anybody today, Ned. The fact is that you are a privileged white male and so I am. It doesn't matter of your volunteerism of philanthropy. That's not any kind of dig or disrespect to you. Its ok to accept that you are privileged because it's true. I understand everybody is going through difficult times and as I said above I wish people the best and I will offer a helping hand to those in need. Peace.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: ogkb
bernie won Colorado.
bernie won Colorado.
awesome. lol.
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: Rasputin O'Leary
< Colorado Restaurant Open
< Colorado Restaurant Open and Crowded >
Top of Page Bottom of Page PermalinkFull Name: long live the dead
Fatalistic pyramid of hate
Fatalistic pyramid of hate
throw up your hands and barf on everyone "I'm gonna Take my ball and go home"
you too can take no responsibility
my psychobabble message of the moment
politics suck. Prob always have I got no horse in this race, no passion other that defeating the dictator in chief Before the hole we are digging will take many many years to dig out of
compromise is part of life. Or go live in a cave. (While whining on a message board?)