Kentucky Derby

Plus Que Parfait and War of Will have had strong races in the slop at Churchill Downs. Could be raining in Louisville on Saturday and good for mudders.

In terms of post positions Game Winner (#16) & Tacitus (#8) look real good. Since 1930 #16 (47 entries)  has won 8.5 % of the time & has been in the money (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) 21.2% of the time. #8 (87entries) has won 10.2 % of the time & been in the money 21.5 % of the time.

Omaha Beach (#12) does not have that good of a post (72 entries & just 4.2 % win & 12.5 % in the money) is a good horse & has Mike Smith (last year's winner)  on board. Improbable (#5) is another good one with a great post (87 entries & 10.3 % win & 23 % in the money). Roadster, a great horse, has the shittiest post of all #17 (39 entries with 0 wins & 7.6% in the money).

Best Beyer speed figures: Omaha Beach 101; Improbable 99; Game Winner & Tacitus both have 97. This is fucking close.

Louisville is once again going to rain (90%). Omaha Beach is the only probable starter with a wet-track victory in a stakes. Game Winner is inexperienced on a wet tract.

How to drown 100 worms. Omaha Beach to show is, I believe, the most secure bet of the day  I believe that a show bet on this horse will pay between $4 & 4.40. So you will double up your buck to a duece. Or if you really want to gamble try #8 with the #12 with #16 with the #17 (shitty post but a great horse) as an exacta box. 12 combinations $8 exacta box = $96. Probable payoff - $300 - $400 possibly more.

I always try to bet safely as I like to win & I have made $ the last 6 Derbys but it is at best a horse race.

Math is wrong must have been that last hit. 4 horse exacta box = 24 combinations. $4 exacta box. Still will pay, if it wins, but not as good. Go for the show bet.

I will not decide until the last minute. I might go Game Winner to show. This year is going to be a tough one.

Good thing we know now. On the morning of we can all read The Daily Racing Form.  Looks like Game Winner or Improbable to show. Roadster might place or show but I do see him winning.

The single most sure bet in this race is that Bob Baffert will win his 6h Derby.

Just not interested anymore.

I think it's been fading for me since the introduction fo the red carpet.

This is from someone who grew up and was first put on a horse by a Kentuckian.

Owlsey's dad was a Colonel I believe. :)

Meh.  It's all about Yootoob vids of aholes on the infield now.

Which, to be fair, are far more entertaining.

NASCAR for rich folks.

Improbable 

Rory McIlroy for the win.

The triple crown is pretty much the only time of year I play the ponies. It's a leftover tradition from when my dad and I would pick horses and play 'em. He's been gone 12 years and I'm betting solo this year.

I'll box a couple triples, I like 1,3,5, and 8; then 7,8, 14 and 13. Going to wet, need to find a murder

https://youtu.be/tnrMg-KGZG8

Was a rough one. Nothing for me but the wife won both place & show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7shHGsmLPI

my cousin hit big tonight, gonna be a fun weekend 

How long until this cruel sport gets outlawed?

20 years?

A race about which Trump "discusses the injustice of someone coming in second but still winning by a technicality.  It's like Karma having a three-way with Irony and Satan."

~John Fugelsang~

My husband bet $5 on Country Home ....

THAT was a nice little surprise !!!!!

I'm not really into racing either, but he likes to bet on the Derby each year.